Evaluating predictive model quality based on one reality

Comic from Lokad's supply chain series, depicting a corporate setting where two individuals, a woman and a man, are discussing a predictive model. The woman, holding a tablet, looks concerned as she observes a graph on the wall. The graph shows an unexpected spike of demand, labeled '1% chance', diverging from the 'most likely scenario'. The graph also humorously includes the label 'MASKS & more', a reference to the unforeseen impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The man, relaxed and smoking a cigar, dismisses the data by saying, 'Data science? Haha, more like data nonsense.' The cartoon is titled 'Evaluating predictive model quality based on one reality', highlighting the challenges of predicting rare and impactful events.

Artist: Marina Besfamilnaya