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The Role of Scarcity in Supply Chain
The Role of Scarcity in Supply Chain

The Role of Scarcity in Supply Chain

In a dialogue with Conor Doherty, Joannes Vermorel, founder of Lokad, criticizes mainstream supply chain theory for overlooking resource scarcity and alternative uses. Joannes Vermorel argues that traditional theory assumes a known future, eliminating the need for resource allocation decisions. He emphasizes the importance of time in supply chain management, stating that no resource is truly scarce given enough time. Joannes Vermorel also criticizes the mainstream view for ignoring the complexities of allocation decisions and the importance of financial assessments. He suggests that supply chain optimization should involve probabilistic forecasting and stochastic optimization, assessing all possible futures and making decisions based on expected returns.

Supply Chain Lectures(More episodes)

On Knowledge, Time and Work for Supply Chains - Lecture 1.7 Jul 5, 2023

On Knowledge, Time and Work for Supply Chains - Lecture 1.7

Supply chains abide by the general economic principles. Yet, these principles are too little known and too frequently misrepresented. Popular supply chain practices and their theories often contradict what is generally agreed upon in economics.

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Pricing Optimization for the Automotive Aftermarket - Lecture 6.2 May 10, 2023

Pricing Optimization for the Automotive Aftermarket - Lecture 6.2

The balance of supply and demand very much depends on prices. Thus, pricing optimization belongs to the realm of supply chain, at least to a sizeable extent. We will present a series of techniques to optimize the prices of a fictitious automotive aftermarket company. Through this example, we will see the danger associated with abstract lines of reasoning that fail to see the proper context. Knowing what ought to be optimized is more important than the fine print of the optimization itself.

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The Supply Chain Scientist - Lecture 7.3 Mar 8, 2023

The Supply Chain Scientist - Lecture 7.3

At the core of a Quantitative Supply Chain initiative, there is the Supply Chain Scientist (SCS) who executes the data preparation, the economic modeling and the KPI reporting. The smart automation of the supply chain decisions is the end-product of the work done by the SCS. The SCS takes ownership of the generated decisions. The SCS delivers human intelligence magnified through machine processing power.

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Guest speakers(More episodes)

The Evolution of Supply Chain Education (with Paul Jan) Nov 22, 2023

The Evolution of Supply Chain Education (with Paul Jan)

Conor Doherty, host of Lokad TV, recently engaged in a discussion with Joannes Vermorel, founder of Lokad, and Paul Jan, a supply chain professor at the University of Toronto. The conversation centered on the evolving field of supply chain management, the role of data, and the importance of education. Vermorel introduced the concept of "wicked problems" in supply chain, highlighting the limitations of Excel and the need for tools like SQL Server. Jan shared his experience transitioning from Excel to more programmatic options, praising Lokad's tool, Envision. Both emphasized the need for industry disruption and the importance of education in supply chain management.

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Supply Chain Board Games (with Mathias Le Scaon) Oct 30, 2023

Supply Chain Board Games (with Mathias Le Scaon)

In a LokadTV interview, Lokad's Conor Doherty converses with Joannes Vermorel of Lokad and Mathias Le Scaon of Zensimu about the development and purpose of supply chain games. Zensimu creates online games to educate on supply chain topics, while Lokad has released a board game, SkuZ, to make supply chain practice more engaging. Both founders discuss the challenges of balancing realism, learning, and entertainment in game design. They also touch on the potential of AI in supply chain games, with Mathias expressing skepticism due to added complexity. Both commit to continuous improvement and innovation in their games.

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Customizing Trek Bikes (Mastering Configurability with Dan Scharneck) - Ep 147 Oct 4, 2023

Customizing Trek Bikes (Mastering Configurability with Dan Scharneck) - Ep 147

In a dialogue moderated by Conor Doherty, Joannes Vermorel of Lokad and Dan Scharneck, the Director of Supply Chain at Trek Bicycle explored the intricacies of supply chain management for customizable products. Vermorel emphasized the combinatorial complexity of supply chains, noting that companies are using them as a differentiator for customer experience. Scharneck agreed, highlighting the importance of delivering custom products promptly and reliably. He acknowledged the challenges of managing inventory with traditional ERP systems, leading Trek to adopt Lokad's more adaptable solution. Vermorel explained that Lokad uses probabilistic forecasts to assess the risk of bottlenecks, providing a more powerful perspective on supply chain delays. Both agreed on the importance of managing supply chain complexity and the value configurability offers to customers.

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Supply Chain In 3 Minutes(More episodes)

Forecast Value Added - Supply Chain in 3 minutes Oct 25, 2023

Forecast Value Added - Supply Chain in 3 minutes

Conor Doherty, Lokad's technical writer, discusses Forecast Value Added (FVA), a diagnostic tool for evaluating the value of each step in the forecasting process. FVA integrates insights from various departments to enhance forecasting precision. Doherty notes that FVA presumes that greater forecasting accuracy is always beneficial, which is not always the case. He suggests that the focus should be on reducing monetary error rather than pursuing greater accuracy. He concludes that FVA could be used as a competence test, but does not validate the routine use of non-specialists for forecasting input.

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Backorders - Supply Chain in 3 minutes Aug 30, 2023

Backorders - Supply Chain in 3 minutes

Backorders are purchase orders made to the supplier for products that are already out of stock from a given location being served. Backordering is the process of selling inventory that the company doesn’t currently have on hand, and can therefore only take place when the demand is captured in a formal manner.

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Inventory Control - Supply Chain in 3 minutes Aug 23, 2023

Inventory Control - Supply Chain in 3 minutes

Inventory control encompasses all the processes that support the supply, the storage, and the accessibility of items in order to ensure their availability while minimizing inventory costs. It can be split into two major areas. The management of inventory and the optimization of inventory. When managing the inventory, the goal is to sustain a high productivity for all inventory operations.

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Supply Chain science and tech(More episodes)

The Role of Scarcity in Supply Chain Dec 6, 2023

The Role of Scarcity in Supply Chain

In a dialogue with Conor Doherty, Joannes Vermorel, founder of Lokad, criticizes mainstream supply chain theory for overlooking resource scarcity and alternative uses. Joannes Vermorel argues that traditional theory assumes a known future, eliminating the need for resource allocation decisions. He emphasizes the importance of time in supply chain management, stating that no resource is truly scarce given enough time. Joannes Vermorel also criticizes the mainstream view for ignoring the complexities of allocation decisions and the importance of financial assessments. He suggests that supply chain optimization should involve probabilistic forecasting and stochastic optimization, assessing all possible futures and making decisions based on expected returns.

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Risks in Supply Chain Management Nov 8, 2023

Risks in Supply Chain Management

Conor Doherty, LokadTV host, and Joannes Vermorel, founder of Lokad, discuss the inherent risks in supply chain management. Vermorel emphasizes that the primary risk is the uncertainty of the future, which is irreducible and beyond control. He notes that every decision involves a trade-off between risk and reward, and that zero risk is unattainable. Vermorel also highlights the opportunities that can arise from these risks, such as capitalizing on market shortages. He advocates an agile and opportunistic mindset, and the use of probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risk. Vermorel and Doherty conclude by agreeing that even small companies can benefit from risk management, leading to increased margins and cash flow.

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Does forecast accuracy even matter? Sep 27, 2023

Does forecast accuracy even matter?

Joannes Vermorel, CEO of Lokad, criticizes the traditional understanding of forecast accuracy in supply chain management, arguing that it doesn't reflect the core DNA of a business. He suggests that time series forecasts, which are commonly used, are overly simplistic and do not accurately represent the future for supply chain purposes. Vermorel proposes a different approach, focusing on being quantitatively faithful to the essence of a company. He criticizes the focus on incremental improvements and suggests that companies should look for simpler, better solutions. Vermorel emphasizes the importance of understanding the essence of the problem and producing quantifiable statements that make sense for the business.

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Industry deep dive(More episodes)

MRO Holdings' Quantitative Supply Chain Revolution (with Ricardo Alvarez Henao) Nov 29, 2023

MRO Holdings’ Quantitative Supply Chain Revolution (with Ricardo Alvarez Henao)

In a recent dialogue, Ricardo Alvarez Henao, Supply Chain Director at MRO Holdings, shared insights on the aviation MRO sector with Luciano Lisiotti of Lokad. Alvarez Henao emphasized the importance of anticipation and visibility in supply chain risk management, noting that inaccurate forecasts could lead to operational delays or surplus inventory. He also highlighted emerging trends in the MRO industry, including a post-pandemic bounce back, a trend towards partnerships, and the increasing complexity of demand. Alvarez Henao stressed the importance of embracing volatility and complexity, and the usefulness of probabilistic demand planning and forecasting. He concluded that while the MRO sector is more complex than the fast-moving consumer goods sector, the principles of leading a supply chain are similar.

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MRO Complexity Explained (Paris Air Show 2023) Sep 6, 2023

MRO Complexity Explained (Paris Air Show 2023)

Effective MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) requires meticulous management of up to several million parts per plane, where any unavailability can result in costly aircraft-on-ground (AOG) events. Traditional solutions to manage this complexity involve implementing safety stock formulas or maintaining excessive inventory, both of which have limitations and can be financially untenable. Lokad, through a probabilistic forecasting approach, focuses on forecasting the failure or repair needs of every individual part across the fleet and assessing the immediate and downstream financial impact of potential AOG events.

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The Supply Chain of the Future at Air France Industries with Guillaume Adrien Jun 28, 2023

The Supply Chain of the Future at Air France Industries with Guillaume Adrien

Guillaume Adrien, VP of Supply Chain Design and Performance at Air France Industries, and Joannes Vermorel, Lokad's founder, discuss the complexities of aviation supply chain optimization. Adrien explains that the nature of the industry demands swift response to unpredictable circumstances, with safety being a top priority. The collaboration with Lokad and the use of predictive optimization technology has resulted in noticeable improvements in non-stock management and other supply chain areas. Emphasizing the ongoing transformation of Air France's supply chain, Adrien highlights the need for adaptability, curiosity, data-driven mindsets, and innovation in aspiring engineers. The goal is to create a digital twin of the supply chain for potential optimizations.

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French tech(More episodes)

Innovating Inventory management at Celio with Julie Schaf Sep 13, 2023

Innovating Inventory management at Celio with Julie Schaf

In this interview recorded in spring 2023 at a Celio store in Rosny-sous-Bois, Joannes Vermorel (founder of Lokad) and Julie Schaf (Supply Chain Director at Celio), discuss their ongoing supply chain optimization partnership. Schaf praises Lokad's approach, which differs from traditional tools by focusing on product value, optimizing shortage management, and offering high responsiveness to evolving needs. She points out that Lokad anticipates shortages and prioritizes the dispatch of high-performing products to the most profitable stores for each given item. Their close collaboration facilitates rapid adaptation to required changes, generating beneficial economic and operational impacts for Celio.

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Stock Optimization at Air France Industries with Stephan Lise Jul 26, 2023

Stock Optimization at Air France Industries with Stephan Lise

Recorded in the autumn of 2022 at Air France's aircraft engine repair facilities, the interview features Stéphan Lise and Joannes Vermorel discussing "Prognos for Inventory", a collaborative tool between Lokad and Air France for optimized stock management in the aerospace industry. They emphasize the complexity of the sector, especially the prediction of needs for expensive parts. The tool proved crucial during the COVID-19 crisis, quickly adapting operations. Mr. Lise highlights the agility of Prognos for Inventory compared to other enterprise solutions, emphasizing its ability to adapt to user processes while allowing effective inter-process communication.

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Managing a fashion supply chain at Celio With David Teboul Jul 12, 2023

Managing a fashion supply chain at Celio With David Teboul

In this interview recorded onsite at a Celio store in Rosny-sous-Bois, Joannes Vermorel and David Teboul (Managing Director of Operations at Celio) discuss the resurgence of Celio following the challenges of 2020-2021. David highlights the importance of a "normal" customer-focused approach in transforming the brand. Lokad supported this transformation by assisting in optimizing the supply chain to better cater to a diverse range of stores and offers. Despite increasing complexity and the rise of online commerce, David emphasizes the need for agility and the critical role of physical stores for Celio, while striving to understand and meet customer needs through various touchpoints.

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