Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Agricultural Supply Chains
Download the paper: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Agricultural Supply Chains (PDF)
Agricultural supply chains do not start with clean inputs and neat plans. They start with biology.
Rain, drought, frost, disease, pests, crop quality, yield curves, commodity prices, freight, storage, processing capacity, and market access all affect decisions long before the final outcome is known. This is why better forecasting is only part of the answer.
In agribusiness, the harder question is not “what is the plan?” It is “which decision still makes economic sense, given the possible future scenarios?” This is a major source of tension in traditional supply chain practices, which typically rely on a single prediction of the future, often combined with gut feel.
I was delighted to co-author this paper with André Margoto, Global Director of Supply Chain for Juices at Louis Dreyfus Company. André oversees end-to-end operations for a major global juice business and brings more than 15 years of agribusiness expertise to the discussion.
The paper is a mix of research and dialogue, providing readers with a digestible argument for why agricultural supply chains need risk-aware, quantitative decision-making.
We cover:
- why long agricultural supply chains create lock-in;
- why the average is not the decision;
- why prediction alone does not decide;
- how biological uncertainty becomes financial exposure;
- why stopping can sometimes be the best available decision;
- and why expert judgment needs a system, not just another spreadsheet.
Ultimately, the goal of an agribusiness supply chain transformation is not to predict the future perfectly.
The goal is to make better decisions before the future is known.
To continue the discussion, connect with André Margoto or Conor E. Doherty on LinkedIn, or reach them directly by email: andre.margoto@gmail.com / c.doherty@lokad.com.
