The Hidden Cost of Forecast Accuracy
Why better forecast accuracy can worsen decisions. Joannes Vermorel argues for decision-first, probabilistic approaches and P&L-grounded rate-of-return KPIs.
Oct 23, 2025
Why better forecast accuracy can worsen decisions. Joannes Vermorel argues for decision-first, probabilistic approaches and P&L-grounded rate-of-return KPIs.
Supply chains abide by the general economic principles. Yet, these principles are too little known and too frequently misrepresented. Popular supply chain practices and their theories often contradict what is generally agreed upon in economics.
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The balance of supply and demand very much depends on prices. Thus, pricing optimization belongs to the realm of supply chain, at least to a sizeable extent. We will present a series of techniques to optimize the prices of a fictitious automotive aftermarket company. Through this example, we will see the danger associated with abstract lines of reasoning that fail to see the proper context. Knowing what ought to be optimized is more important than the fine print of the optimization itself.
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At the core of a Quantitative Supply Chain initiative, there is the Supply Chain Scientist (SCS) who executes the data preparation, the economic modeling and the KPI reporting. The smart automation of the supply chain decisions is the end-product of the work done by the SCS. The SCS takes ownership of the generated decisions. The SCS delivers human intelligence magnified through machine processing power.
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Generative AI in supply chain practical wins, limits, and the value gap. LokadTV with Joannes Vermorel and McKinsey Knut Alicke on what matters next.
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Rupert Schiessl (Bamboo Rose's Chief AI Officer) joins Lokad’s Joannes Vermorel (CEO) and Conor Doherty (Director of Marketing) for a discussion on how generative AI reshapes Product Lifecycle Management (PLM).
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A conversation with Joannes Vermorel, Adam Dejans Jr., John Elam, and Conor Doherty on how to make optimization practical for executives, covering culture, change management, and the real value of forecasting in supply chain.
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FIFO is simple, but often costly. Discover why it fails in complex repair scenarios—and how AI and financial optimization offer smarter alternatives.
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In a recent discussion, Conor Doherty highlights the critical differences between a bill of materials (BOM) and a bill of resources (BOR) for effective scheduling in manufacturing and repair operations. While a BOM lists the raw materials needed for production, a BOR includes not only these materials but also the necessary tools and skills. Doherty emphasizes that neglecting any component of the BOR can lead to production delays and increased costs. He argues that a comprehensive understanding of both BOM and BOR is essential for optimizing efficiency and minimizing financial risks in industrial processes.
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Conor Doherty of Lokad scrutinizes a Harvard study on AI's impact on white-collar jobs, revealing nuanced effects. The research, involving 758 consultants, assesses AI's role in enhancing productivity, particularly in supply chain management. It finds that AI boosts performance in certain tasks, especially with training, but may falter in complex scenarios. Doherty critiques the study's narrow view of AI as an adjunct to human labor, arguing for its potential to fully automate tasks, thus revolutionizing productivity and redefining white-collar work. He warns of overconfidence in job security, as AI's full capabilities could dramatically alter the employment landscape.
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Why better forecast accuracy can worsen decisions. Joannes Vermorel argues for decision-first, probabilistic approaches and P&L-grounded rate-of-return KPIs.
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A fair and frank session on the economics, software, and business implications of the recent SAP antitrust investigation. We will explore how it started, why it matters, and what companies can do about pervasive ERP lock-in.
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A candid session on the key theories and practices from Joannes new book Introduction to Supply Chain. We will explore how to forecast beyond demand, move from KPIs to cash, build resilient decisions under uncertainty, and make variability a core part of daily operations.
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Conor Doherty and Joannes Vermorel expose vendor-biased market research and show how deep-search LLMs can deliver faster, fairer supply-chain insights.
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In a reflective dialogue, Conor Doherty and Joannes Vermorel delve into supply chain challenges in the oil and gas industry, likening them to managing a miniature city rather than straightforward enterprises. Vermorel critiques conventional methods focused on criticality, advocating for automation and numerical models to enhance efficiency. He addresses the financial impact of long-tail events, emphasizing streamlined inventory practices over stockpiling. Vermorel highlights the inadequacy of systems like ERPs in decision-making, advocating for systems of intelligence to navigate future uncertainties. The conversation underscores the industry's conservative nature, where agility and digital optimization are crucial for advancing supply chain strategies.
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In an insightful discussion between Conor Doherty of Lokad and CEO Joannes Vermorel, they delve into the financial setbacks associated with SAP’s software implementations. Vermorel elucidates the fundamental problems of merging systems of records, systems of reports, and systems of intelligence into a single ERP solution, which leads to inefficiencies and conflicts. They highlight the costly failures experienced by companies like DHL and Lidl due to SAP’s flawed strategies, particularly the integration of HANA. Vermorel advocates for specialized systems and open-source solutions like PostgreSQL, which offer robust functionality at lower costs, steering companies away from complex, ineffective software amalgamations.
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Jacques Dauvergne (Director of the AFMAE Training Center) reflects on the 10-year anniversary of Air France & Lokad's supply chain optimization partnership.
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Interview with Elizabeth Peters on Spairliners’ decade-long collaboration with Lokad, exploring parts-pooling challenges and the commercial edge it provides.
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Remi Quentin explains how Lokad's data-driven decision automation supports Spairliners' supply chain.
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SMCP and Lokad described supply-chain management as economics, not ritual. Scarce inventory must be allocated where it earns the highest return. Instead of backward-looking “weeks of coverage” and cluster rules, they use probabilistic, store-SKU decisions, explicit about uncertainty, substitution, and capacity.
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Joannes Vermorel, CEO and Founder of Lokad, delivered a lecture in French, sharing his journey in Supply Chain management. Vermorel recounted founding Lokad after graduating from École Normale Supérieure and shifting focus from bioinformatics to Supply Chain challenges. He discussed the development of Envision, Lokad's programming language, and the company's evolution since 2007. Vermorel criticized traditional Supply Chain theories, likening them to astrology, and emphasized the importance of challenging consensus. He highlighted Lokad's success with probabilistic methods and the impact of COVID-19 on Supply Chain robotization. Vermorel predicted the obsolescence of traditional roles and encouraged students to drive the industry's revolution.
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Recorded in November 2024 in Paris, Conor Doherty (Communications Director at Lokad) reports on Lokad's second appearance at Supply Chain Event. This yearly French-language event is a major gathering of solution-providers in the industry. This time, Lokad hosted a panel discussion with French retail giant Maisons du Monde to discuss the intricacies of their supply chain partnership.
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